Friday, 7 September 2012

Obama to win presidential election - just?

Governor Romney
President Obama
The US Presidential election will be held on 6th November 2012 and it remains a tight race with little movement in the polls to provide a clear indication who will win between President Obama and GovernorMitt Romney.
One argument suggests a Democrat President presiding over a struggling economy and record unemployment vs a proven Republican businessman with masses of political experience should be a walk over for Mitt Romney. 'It’s the economy, stupid' is the catch phrase that springs to mind.
However, another argument suggests that a wooden Republican performer with some questionable business dealings is up against a magnificent orator who has proven his presidency by ordering a difficult, high risk attack to kill the number one terrorist; Osama Bin Laden resulting in a clear win for President Obama.
The 2008 election produced a clear win for Obama with 365 electoral votes (270 needed to win) to Sen. John McCain’s 173 votes. Obama also gained 10 million more votes with 52.9% of the vote to McCain’s 45.7%.

The 2010 census though changed around some of the college votes according to the distribution of the population State by State. The result is that the Democrats would lose six of those electoral votes and the Republicans gain six votes, giving them a small but important overall gain even before the race for the White House had started. 
prediction model from the University of Colorado, which has been right in every election since 1980, gives an emphatic win to Romney based on crunching the unemployment data and other economic information: 218 electoral votes to Obama vs 320 for Romney.
I suspect that whilst they may have a good track record in predicting the results, 2012 is a unique presidential year and other factors come into play that affect how voters will vote. For example, the likeability test suggests a track record of predicting the outcome of each election. Obama outscores Romney clears on ‘likeability’ by 50:30 but that does not mean he is a shoe-in for the presidency this time.
The prediction website, as of today (7 September 2012) provides the following graphic:

This would result in an Obama victory by:                 

So looking like a second term for the President? Far from it, the polling has a statistical margin of error of +/- 3%. So many States are showing close polls that they could easily switch. With still two full months to go until the general election, there are many twists and turns yet to come.

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